ARMED RESTRAINT AND FORWARD POLICY IN REVERSE
WHO WANTS A WAR?
WHO WANTS A WAR?
(D S SARAO)
1 "Those Who Cannot Remember The Past Are Doomed To Repeat It". The quote is ascribed to George Santayana, a thinker and philosopher of some repute, who had attended Boston Latin School and Harvard College and was a one time professor in philosophy at Harvard. According to Santayana's philosophy, 'history repeats itself', and if that be true, should not lessons of history guide foreign and national policy? And do we really learn from past mistakes? 2 Wars are always due to the urge of acquiring more territory or because of ideological differences or because of economic necessity or a combination of any of these factors. Many subsequent wars have been as a result of 'unfinished business'. The 'end' of such wars only led to a temporary respite with the core issues put into a state of hibernation. No lessons learnt--history buried and forgotten; till the next round. WW1 never really ended with the armistice. It sowed the seeds for the next great war. The Indo-Pak war of 47-48 sowed the seeds for the subsequent wars. So did the Arab-Israeli wars and first Gulf war. In the present context, the stage for a Sino-Indian clash was laid in the 50's when the first inklings of Chinese objections to the Macmohan line were received by India. But the questions remains. Have we learnt anything from our past dealings with the Chinese or are we again going to repeat the rhetoric of being 'stabbed in the back'! Is it worthwhile to jump into a state of war without exhausting other means at the disposal of the nation?
3 Before we debate on the intentions of the Chinese and their recent incursions, we need to understand the very concept of a ''Nation State'' and the need for a state to have an army. A State is more than a government. All governments, whether democratic or dictatorial, are transient but States endure. A State is the means of rule over a defined or "sovereign" territory. It is comprised of an executive, a bureaucracy, courts and other institutions. But, above all, a State maintains an army to protect its sovereignty and territorial integrity and when required, impose its will on other States if diplomacy fails. Wars start where diplomacy fails. Be ready for war but start the war only once diplomacy and coercion fail.
4 In 1962 it was Mao's directive of 'armed restraint' to Nehru's 'forward policy' before the shooting war started. It seems that the play is once again on, this time with roles reversed. The Chinese have decided to creep forward not only in the Galwan Valley area, which in any case was hardly a major point of dispute after the 1962 war, they have also activated old flash points and made startling new claims. The attempt at salami slicing and grabbing land in places, many of which were recognised by both parties as 'area's of differing perceptions,' points to a well thought of and calibrated plan at the highest levels. It is evident that China is now trying to alter the status quo from Depsang/PP14/Pangong Tso in Ladakh onwards to the 'disputed areas' in the East to include Chumbi Valley and Arunachal Pradesh (Doklam Plateau, Anjaw, Andrella and Upper Subansiri) in the 33 and 4 Corps areas. Many of these areas are not clearly demarcated; physically occupied by none but patrolled by both. Considering the extent of Chinese incursions and activities spread over the entire Northern, Middle and Eastern theatres it becomes clear that this is no rogue action by the PLA's Western Theatre Command (responsible for operations opposite the Ladakh sector) currently headed by General Zhao Zongqi. He may well be the architect of PLA's current 'forward policy", but the sanction for the same definitely has the approval of the CMC and Xi Jinping.
5 The Chinese are adept in Sun T’zu’s art of diplomacy and war and have taken their lesson well. Two important teachings of this great thinker, who has influenced so much of military strategy, can be seen in the Chinese moves – firstly , 'to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill’ and secondly, ’Speed is the essence of war. Take advantage of the enemy's unpreparedness; travel by unexpected routes and strike him where he has taken no precautions.’
6 Not going into the debate as to what could be the Chinese intentions in their latest forays (and gauging these intentions does not require a crystal bowl), what this article wishes to highlight is that without going into a full fledged war, which neither China nor India is keen on, India can very easily, with a mix of Kautilyan and Machiavellianism strategy, win the next round and take the initiative.
7 He who neglects what is done for what ought to be done, sooner effects his ruin than his preservation. It is a known fact that the political doctrine of Machiavelli, also denies the relevance of morality in political affairs and holds that craft and deceit are justified in pursuing and maintaining sovereign power. So what stops India from doing all or any of the following, some already being done and others in being.
8 On the international front we need to recall the Indian Ambassador for urgent consultations and advise the Chinese Ambassador that he needs to go and discuss the issue with his Government. A message will be conveyed that the time for CBM's, corps commander level meetings and niceties is now over. Simultaneously the Foreign Minister should immediately plan on quick visits to Indonesia, South Korea, Phillipines, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia and Australia. The MEA should depute senior officials from the external affairs ministry to visit Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka Burma, Maldives, Afghanistan and tell them –‘‘either you are with us or against us, and we shall remember.’’ We will also come to know who our friends are. Our hard ware and war material supplies from Israel, France, Britain, S Africa, Russia amongst others need to be confirmed.
9 We need to warn Pakistan to steer clear while we finish our business with China. The Americans (and the Quad) will ensure that Pakistan neither threatens India with a second front nor 'surrenders' its sovereignity by providing air bases to China in the Skardu /POK region. A two front war does not suit any nation. It is exactly for this reason that alliances become a must.
10 On the economic front, an advisory to Indians and Indian traders to be cautious in the whole gamut of tourism, education, economic affairs, trade and border movement etc. Trade to be put on hold. As per latest figures, China accounts for over 5% of India’s total exports in financial year 2019-20 and more than 14% of imports. India therefore runs a huge trade deficit with China. This should be taken as an opportunity, not as a set back. Surely the Ministry of Commerce can find alternate suppliers. There are many more than willing 'Asian Tigers' for supplying our smartphones, electrical appliances, power plant inputs, fertilisers, auto components, finished steel products and capital and engineering goods which were being supplied by China. Let them feel the squeeze from the (still) fastest growing economy.
11 On the military front,we need to take necessary steps in the Northern, Middle (central) and Eastern Sectors to counter and pre-empt any more such like Chinese ventures. Aim being to provide the Chinese with a fait-accompli; maybe even a quid pro quo (land grab). Immediate and credible mobilization of the Services, the Railways and the Nation in case the Chinese flex their muscle or mobilise sizeable troops in the Tibet and Xinjiang Military districts or the Western Theatre Command or across the T'sang Po --- the whole world is watching.
12 Occupation of all heights and other defensive positions along the Indo-China border by earmarked units and reserve formations with deployment of artillery with ammunition dumping. Invoke certain treaty obligations with Bhutan and with their concurrence, move troops to secure vulnerabilities in the Doklam Plateau once for all. Let continuous fighter sorties, fully armed, fly over the so called disputed area, without crossing what we perceive is the actual border/LAC. Maximum and visible use of a large number of rotary wing and transport resources for logistics, troop movements and reconnaissance. Move of frontline fighters and other aerial assets to forward bases along the Chinese frontier. We mean business.
12 Aggressive patrolling and maritime reconnaissance by the Indian Navy extending from the Horn of Africa to the Western sea-board of Australia . Use your aircraft carrier, battleships and submarines on the high seas, which are as much yours as any other nations’ Remember, China has most of its oil and other imports through the Indian Ocean. Do not do not venture into the South China Sea at this time. Let the Americans, Taiwanese Japanese, Australians and interested parties handle that.
13 The Tibet card---our trump card, dangle it in front of the Chinese and play it close to the chest, atleast for now. Call the Dalai Lama to Delhi the day you recall your Ambassador from China. Xinjian, is also there, but in a later time frame. In case China raises Sikkim or Arunachal, remind China about Tibet. In any case the world is interested in Tibet, not Sikkim. Do not take your territorial or ‘hot war’ disputes to the United Nations.That , unfortunately, is the recourse of a weak and unsure nation. Let the other party do that if they want. There would have been no 'Azad Kashmir', but for such follies.
4 Whereas Carl von Clausewitz said that war is just an extension of domestic politics, Kautilya argued that diplomacy is really a subtle act of war, a series of actions taken to weaken an enemy and gain advantages for oneself . A nation’s foreign policy should always consist of preliminary movements toward war, if war is inevitable: “In this way, the conqueror should establish in the rear and in front, a circle (of kings) in his own interest—'
And finally, war is always an option.
5 The Chinese are adept in Sun T’zu’s art of diplomacy and war and have taken their lesson well. Two important teachings of this great thinker, who has influenced so much of military strategy, can be seen in the Chinese moves – firstly , 'to win one hundred victories in one hundred battles is not the acme of skill. To subdue the enemy without fighting is the acme of skill’ and secondly, ’Speed is the essence of war. Take advantage of the enemy's unpreparedness; travel by unexpected routes and strike him where he has taken no precautions.’
Surprise The Enemy And Keep Him Guessing
6 Not going into the debate as to what could be the Chinese intentions in their latest forays (and gauging these intentions does not require a crystal bowl), what this article wishes to highlight is that without going into a full fledged war, which neither China nor India is keen on, India can very easily, with a mix of Kautilyan and Machiavellianism strategy, win the next round and take the initiative.
7 He who neglects what is done for what ought to be done, sooner effects his ruin than his preservation. It is a known fact that the political doctrine of Machiavelli, also denies the relevance of morality in political affairs and holds that craft and deceit are justified in pursuing and maintaining sovereign power. So what stops India from doing all or any of the following, some already being done and others in being.8 On the international front we need to recall the Indian Ambassador for urgent consultations and advise the Chinese Ambassador that he needs to go and discuss the issue with his Government. A message will be conveyed that the time for CBM's, corps commander level meetings and niceties is now over. Simultaneously the Foreign Minister should immediately plan on quick visits to Indonesia, South Korea, Phillipines, Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, Malaysia and Australia. The MEA should depute senior officials from the external affairs ministry to visit Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Sri Lanka Burma, Maldives, Afghanistan and tell them –‘‘either you are with us or against us, and we shall remember.’’ We will also come to know who our friends are. Our hard ware and war material supplies from Israel, France, Britain, S Africa, Russia amongst others need to be confirmed.
9 We need to warn Pakistan to steer clear while we finish our business with China. The Americans (and the Quad) will ensure that Pakistan neither threatens India with a second front nor 'surrenders' its sovereignity by providing air bases to China in the Skardu /POK region. A two front war does not suit any nation. It is exactly for this reason that alliances become a must.
10 On the economic front, an advisory to Indians and Indian traders to be cautious in the whole gamut of tourism, education, economic affairs, trade and border movement etc. Trade to be put on hold. As per latest figures, China accounts for over 5% of India’s total exports in financial year 2019-20 and more than 14% of imports. India therefore runs a huge trade deficit with China. This should be taken as an opportunity, not as a set back. Surely the Ministry of Commerce can find alternate suppliers. There are many more than willing 'Asian Tigers' for supplying our smartphones, electrical appliances, power plant inputs, fertilisers, auto components, finished steel products and capital and engineering goods which were being supplied by China. Let them feel the squeeze from the (still) fastest growing economy.
11 On the military front,we need to take necessary steps in the Northern, Middle (central) and Eastern Sectors to counter and pre-empt any more such like Chinese ventures. Aim being to provide the Chinese with a fait-accompli; maybe even a quid pro quo (land grab). Immediate and credible mobilization of the Services, the Railways and the Nation in case the Chinese flex their muscle or mobilise sizeable troops in the Tibet and Xinjiang Military districts or the Western Theatre Command or across the T'sang Po --- the whole world is watching.
12 Occupation of all heights and other defensive positions along the Indo-China border by earmarked units and reserve formations with deployment of artillery with ammunition dumping. Invoke certain treaty obligations with Bhutan and with their concurrence, move troops to secure vulnerabilities in the Doklam Plateau once for all. Let continuous fighter sorties, fully armed, fly over the so called disputed area, without crossing what we perceive is the actual border/LAC. Maximum and visible use of a large number of rotary wing and transport resources for logistics, troop movements and reconnaissance. Move of frontline fighters and other aerial assets to forward bases along the Chinese frontier. We mean business.
12 Aggressive patrolling and maritime reconnaissance by the Indian Navy extending from the Horn of Africa to the Western sea-board of Australia . Use your aircraft carrier, battleships and submarines on the high seas, which are as much yours as any other nations’ Remember, China has most of its oil and other imports through the Indian Ocean. Do not do not venture into the South China Sea at this time. Let the Americans, Taiwanese Japanese, Australians and interested parties handle that.
13 The Tibet card---our trump card, dangle it in front of the Chinese and play it close to the chest, atleast for now. Call the Dalai Lama to Delhi the day you recall your Ambassador from China. Xinjian, is also there, but in a later time frame. In case China raises Sikkim or Arunachal, remind China about Tibet. In any case the world is interested in Tibet, not Sikkim. Do not take your territorial or ‘hot war’ disputes to the United Nations.That , unfortunately, is the recourse of a weak and unsure nation. Let the other party do that if they want. There would have been no 'Azad Kashmir', but for such follies.
4 Whereas Carl von Clausewitz said that war is just an extension of domestic politics, Kautilya argued that diplomacy is really a subtle act of war, a series of actions taken to weaken an enemy and gain advantages for oneself . A nation’s foreign policy should always consist of preliminary movements toward war, if war is inevitable: “In this way, the conqueror should establish in the rear and in front, a circle (of kings) in his own interest—'
And finally, war is always an option.
‘’ROUND TWO - GAME , SET AND MATCH IS YOURS’’
